How long can the Jewish State of Israel survive in the middle east? A US professor of history sees parallels with the ill-fated Christian Crusader States

In 1099, European zealots invaded the middle east to create a Christian “Kingdom of Jerusalem”. But 88 years later it was defeated by Salah al Adin. Professor Roy Casagranda, anticipates that the European project of a Jewish State of Israel might well face the same fate. Read more.

Ironically the crusader slogan “Deus Vult” is one of the tatoos on US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s muscular arm.

Professor Roy Casagranda is a prolific historian and political scientist who writes (and podcasts) on US and Middle East Politics. He has spent a lot of time analysing history of the Middle East, including Syria, the Levant and Egypt. Recently, he has turned his attention to the Christian crusades and sees parallels with a contemporary European attempt to carve out a state in the middle east – the creation of the Jewish State of Israel.

Pope Urban II launched the first crusade, with a promise that fighting would wash away sins under the slogan “Deus Vult” or “God wills it”. The Crusades (actually there were six crusades) was a European Christian military/political/religious movement whose goal was to take control of the Holy Land and return it to its “original” Christian owners.

The First Crusade captured Jerusalem in a murderous six week siege in 1099. Chroniclers from both sides describe large numbers of Muslim and Jewish inhabitants being killed. Victorious crusaders established the “Kingdom of Jerusalem”, expelling many of the survivors. The city was repopulated with Europeans and remade into a Christian city. Over the next few years, the Crusaders gradually expanded their territory and set up several small kingdoms.

By 1135, the “Kingdom of Jerusalem” had expanded to cover territory more or less coinciding with today’s State of Israel. Fifty years later, it was gone.

But the Kingdom of Jerusalem only lasted 88 years. By 1187, Muslim forces under leaders like Saladin had retaken Jerusalem.

Unlike the crusaders, Saladin did not murder the Christians or destroy their churches. His policy was to allow Christians to stay if they accepted his rule.

The Jewish “State of Israel” and the Christian “Kingdom of Jerusalem”

Casagrande sees five important parallels between the European Christian crusader kingdoms and the more recent European idea of a Jewish State.

These include:

  • A religious ideology that justified the colonisation of the middle east even if it required mass murder and expulsion of the local population
  • Strong military support from European states
  • A weak and disorganized local indigenous population initially unable to put up effective opposition
  • Expulsion of locals, appropriation of their lands and European colonisation
  • A gradual unification of opposing anti-colonial forces which ultimately forced the Christian colonisation project to fail (and could do so with Israel).

Casagranda develops his thesis in this interesting Aljazeera interview with Mohamad Hassan.

What do you think? Israel is now 78 years old. The Kingdom of Jerusalem was defeated in 88 years. Will the Jewish State of Israel outlast the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem?

6 comments

  1. Thanks for this, Peter – Very interesting and probably prophetic! Alex

    “Ours is the pressing duty to remain profoundly human.” Pope Leo XIV

    >

  2. The enshrined racism and lack of humanitarian principles of the Israeli state will not help it survive in long run, and meantime corrode the mental health and resilience of its citizens.

  3. Interestingly, similar thoughts have arisen from Eretz. “Former Israeli premier Ehud Barak has expressed concern that Israel will cease to exist before the 80th anniversary of its 1948 establishment” https://www.palestinechronicle.com/former-israeli-premier-israel-could-cease-to-exist-before-80th-anniversary/ “Throughout the Jewish history, the Jews did not rule for more than eighty years, except in the two kingdoms of David and the Hasmonean dynasty, and in both periods, their disintegration began in the eighth decade.”

    Emigration is increasing, as is internal angst:

    “But if they don’t put an end to this tsunami, they will soon discover that the best people in the country have left” says a worried government official. But these are precisely the people labeled by the powers that be as “traitors”, “kappos” or “insane leftists “. I have read online posts from settler world wishing they would leave the country. So who will be left? Obscurant know-nothing Haredim, messianic settler fanatics and Kahanists thugs. We won’t have to worry about Israel being a pariah state because it will be a failed state, akin to what we used to call “third world” underdeveloped countries.” Haaretz 10/20/25 “A Slippery Slope” Comment 3.

    Startups are leaving and most new ones are registering out of state. Ominously, Israel is proving itself incapable of educating its children and young adults. Since 2006 it has ranked at the bottom of all 38 OECD states in reading, math and science. https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/01/an-action-plan-to-save-israels-future/

    Dire days for the Zionist enterprise. Some years ago The Atlantic, of all publications, published a thought piece entitled, “Was Zionism a Mistake?” Well, where is the proof that it wasn’t?

  4. The idea that the state of Israel with its 10.5 million citizen can be dislodged and disappear the way a few thousands crusaders went away a thousand years ago, is not only genocidal, its also ridiculous.

    unfortunately for many in the Arab world this idea is still very much alive and guides their actions

    Israel has a population larger than Portugal, Greece, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium each.

    Few more facts:

    Most Israeli Jews has no European ancestry.

    Israeli Jews has a birth rate double that of the OECD average and a GDP per capita higher than the EU

    Jews aren’t going anywhere

    1. Israel has about 7.5 million Jews. There is no reason they would need to leave. If the current state of Israel collapses as a result of its own internal contradictions and external pressure, what will replace it? The Jewish State of Israel can be replaced by a secular democratic state in which Israeli Jews and Palestinians (Muslim or Christian or whatever) have equal rights. White South Africans didn’t have to leave – although some did of course. Many Israeli Jews have second passports. If they can’t stand giving up their current privileges, they will probably leave.

    2. Ahik, the word “dislodged” is yours; it does not appear in the article. Perhaps you missed this key passage, “Unlike the crusaders, Saladin did not murder the Christians or destroy their churches. His policy was to allow Christians to stay if they accepted his rule.”.

      The Palestinians I know, including supporters of Hamas, do not want Jews to leave, they want to live together with all ethnicities and religions having the same rights. and privileges. Most recognize the contributions that the very well educated Jewish population could make in a truly democratic society that was at peace. I have not met anyone from the Arab world who thinks Jews should be expelled. Why do you think that many do?

      Incidentally, you wrote, “Most Israeli Jews has no European ancestry.” Is that true of the leadership? Its hard to tell sometimes because many Israeli Jews have hebraized their surnames. The Prime Ministers that I know about about have European ancestry although many of today’s Israelis were born in Palestine. Netanyahu’s pre-Israel paternal ancestors had the family name Mileikowsky; his mother’s family immigrated from the US and took a Hebrew name when they arrived. What is the ethnic history of the present cabinet?

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