Mahmood Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority has just completed a four day state visit to China. “We are good friends and partners,” Chinese President Xi told Abbas. China and Palestine issued a joint statement on the establishment of a “strategic partnership” between the two countries. What does this mean for the Palestinian struggle for justice? Read more…

At first blush, the notion of a China – Palestine “strategic partnership” seems bizarre. China is one of the world’s major economic and military powers, and Palestine is a tiny impoverished state which a third of UN members (including Canada) don’t recognize. It does not even have an army of its own or control its own borders.

But Palestine is recognized by 139 other UN members, almost all of them in the “Global south” – from Egypt to Chile to Indonesia, almost all of them having felt the lash of European colonialism in the past.

China has been courting the Global south, and Arab and Muslim countries in particular, for some time, and has made support for Palestinian rights a key element in that strategy. In the wake of Israeli bombing of Gaza in 2021, China, holding the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, pushed the Security Council to hold five meetings on the Palestinian question and ultimately issued a presidential statement.

“The historical injustices done to the Palestinian people should not be left unattended indefinitely, the legitimate rights and interests of a nation are not up for trade, and the demand to establish an independent state shall not be denied,” said President Xi when delivering his speech to all the leaders of the Arab world at the first China-Arab States Summit in December 2022.

Of course China also recognizes Israel. It has considerable investments, and does nearly 100 times more trade with Israel ($13.8 billion in 2021) than it does with Palestine ($158 million). It has embraced the “two state solution” proposed by the Palestinian Authority and endorsed by most of the international community.

But over the last decade, while maintaining its diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, as explained in a CTIP blog post several months ago, China has been “tilting” progressively more and more in the Palestinian direction.

What is in the Palestine-China “strategic partnership?

In the agreement, China has made two key commitments to Palestine:

• China supports the Palestinian people’s just cause of restoring their legitimate national rights and establishing an independent and fully sovereign state of Palestine based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

• China vowed support for maintaining the historical status quo of the religious holy sites in Jerusalem and Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations.

Unlike statements by Canada and other western countries, these commitments are not conditional on Israeli agreement through a peace deal. The clear implication is that China will not stand aside in case Israel moves to take over the Al Aqsa Mosque, annex the West Bank, or even try to expel massive numbers of Palestinians in a “nakba-like” act of ethnic cleansing.

How would China react if Israel were to attempt any of these moves? The agreement is silent on that. But if China wants to present itself as a reliable ally of the global south, it would be forced to take some action to defend its commitments.

What does China get from the “partnership”?

The Chinese move is not without self-interest. It seems that China will benefit in three principal ways from the partnership:

• It positions China as a friend of the Arab/Muslim world and a strong and reliable anti-colonial voice
• It gets Palestinian support for its “one China” policy at a time when the Western World is challenging China’s right to Taiwan, and also support for China’s “no foreign interference” policy with respect to the Uyghurs
• Lastly – it must be satisfying to snub the USA.

How has the Israel media responded?

The Israeli media reporting on Abbas’ visit has all but ignored the “strategic partnership” declaration and focussed instead on the question of Muslims in Xinjiang. “Ending China trip, PA’s Abbas backs Beijing crackdown on Muslim minorities,“ headlined The Times of Israel.

So – is this mere posturing or is it a potential game changer?

Many people in the Western world are sceptical about China and its intentions. They doubt whether the Chinese would be able to broker a Palestine-Israel deal. “Mr. Xi’s meeting with Mr. Abbas was less about moving toward a resolution of the conflict than about demonstrating China’s intention to be a greater presence in the Middle East going forward“, noted the New York Times.

But while the Palestine-China strategic partnership may not lead to a solution to the conflict, it has probably altered the playing field significantly. Before, the Palestinians had FEW important allies. Now China, one of the world’s superpowers, has laid its reputation on the line in support of the Palestinians.

If Israel were to try to annex the West Bank, as some Israeli politicians urge, or expel Palestinians, it would be a massive loss of face for China if a “strategic partnership” signed by President Xi Jin Ping himself, turned out to be nothing more than a “paper tiger”.

In the past, Israel has been able to count on countries like Canada, the USA and other western countries to look away as Israel destroys Palestinian houses or annexes territory. Israel can’t count on China doing the same. As a result, those menacing outcomes have become a lot less likely.

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Canada Talks Israel Palestine (CTIP) is the weekly newsletter of Peter Larson, Chair of the Ottawa Forum on Israel/Palestine (OFIP). It aims to promote a serious discussion in Canada about Canada’s response to the complicated and emotional Israel/Palestine issue with a focus on the truth, clear analysis and human rights for all. Readers with different points of view are invited to make comment.
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